Lesson 8: Understanding Uncertainty

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  • Read Chapters 14 and sections 15.1 and 15.2 in the text.
  • Work through the Lesson 8 online notes that follow.
  • Complete all lesson assignments as listed in the Canvas Module.

Learning Objectives

Chapters 14 and 15

After successfully completing this lesson you should be able to:

  • Identify and apply the relative frequency interpretation of probability.
  • Apply the basic rules of probability.
  • Set up a calculation for and interpret an expected value.
  • Interpret how proportions and averages converge when the chance process generating them is repeated independently.
  • Set up and interpret a random simulation to estimate a probability.

Terms to Know

click on the terms to learn more

  • probability
  • relative frequency interpretation
  • mutually exclusive events
  • independent events
  • subset
  • expected value
  • simulation
  • random numbers
  • Law of Large Numbers